Here's how ESPN's matchup predictor metric views the difficulty of each of FAU's 12 regular-season games, ranked in order from easiest to hardest.
Luke Chaney
Florida Atlantic's season opener against Michigan State is less than a week away, and the Owls are forecasted to have a much better season than it had in 2023, according to ESPN's 2024 Football Power Index (FPI) projections.
FAU is projected to total 7.4 wins this year, which would be a great improvement from the four-win campaign it had in Tom Herman's first season as head coach of the Owls. FAU's FPI rank of 83 is the fourth-highest mark in the AAC, behind the likes of Tulane (69), Memphis (66) and UTSA (56). The Owls are given a 7.3% chance to win its conference.
Here's how ESPN's matchup predictor metric views the difficulty of each of FAU's 12 regular-season games, ranked in order from easiest to hardest.
SEPT. 28 vs. Wagner (RPI: n/a)
FAU's easiest game of the season will likely be against Wagner, the FCS squad on the Owls' schedule. The Seahawks finished the 2023 campaign with a record of 4-7. This included a 24-0 loss to Navy and a 52-3 defeat to Rutgers. FAU is given a 98.3% chance to win this non-conference finale.
SEPT. 14 vs. FIU (RPI: 132)
In a renewal of the Shula Bowl, the Owls have an 80.5% chance of defeating their in-state rival. FIU has one of the worst FPI ratings in the country, as only Temple and Kent State are ranked lower than them among FBS schools in this index. In the last matchup between FAU and FIU in 2022, the Owls secured a massive 52-7 victory.
NOV. 16 @ Temple (RPI: 133)
Despite it being a road contest, FAU has a 74.2% chance of defeating Temple, which struggled mightily last year, finishing 3-9 and 1-7 in conference play. Entering his third season as head coach of the Owls, Stan Drayton figures to be on the hot seat, as he has accumulated a poor record of 6-18 in his first two years at Temple.
SEPT. 7 vs. Army (RPI: 119)
FAU will welcome Army to the AAC, as this Week 2 contest will be the Black Knights' inaugural game as part of the conference. FAU has a 73.7% chance of coming out on top, but Army's option attack could prove to be tricky for an Owls defense that is not used to playing against such an offensive system.
NOV. 23 vs. Charlotte (RPI: 116)
Similar to FAU, the 49ers made their AAC debut last season. Charlotte struggled to the tune of a 3-9 record, which included a 38-16 mid-season defeat to the Owls. FAU and Charlotte have played against each other every season for the last nine, with the Owls winning the last five straight. FAU has a 71.1% chance to win this year's matchup.
OCT. 12 vs. North Texas (RPI: 106)
Driving down the field wasn't an issue last season for the 5-7 Mean Green. North Texas featured one of the nation's most prolific offenses, as it finished the season ranked sixth in total yards per game and 12th in passing yards per game. North Texas struggled mightily on the defensive side of the ball, allowing the most yards per game in the country. FAU is given a 66.4% chance to win this likely high-scoring affair.
NOV. 1 vs. South Florida (RPI: 88)
ESPN's RPI metric is lower on the Bulls than many other media outlets are. USF finished last season with a 6-6 record but is expected by some to contend for a potential College Football Playoff berth because of a momentum-gaining, bowl-game domination over Syracuse, and the return of star quarterback Byrum Brown. Still, ESPN gives FAU a 57% chance of winning this in-state matchup. The Owls played their most complete game of the season last year in a 56-14 drubbing of USF.
NOV. 7 @ East Carolina (RPI: 94)
East Carolina was one of the worst teams in the country last season, winning only two games (one of which was against FAU), but the Pirates could greatly improve in 2024 thanks to a young and promising defense that ranked first in the AAC last year in yards allowed per game. FAU has a 54.8% chance to win this road contest.
SEPT. 21 @ UConn (RPI: 111):
ESPN is expecting a better showing from UConn in 2024 after the Huskies won just three games in 2023. Their Week 4 matchup against the Owls should be tightly contested, as FAU is given a 53.5% chance of winning. The Owls were dominated in the only other game played between the two schools in 2002.
NOV. 30 @ Tulsa (RPI: 101)
FAU has a less-than-50% chance of winning just three games on its schedule, and its season finale against Tulsa seems to be the biggest coin flip at 48.9%. The Owls nearly edged Tulsa last season in a close, 20-17 home victory.
AUG. 30 @ Michigan State (RPI: 68)
FAU will begin its season in less than a week against the new-look Spartans. Michigan State head coach Jonathan Smith, previously at Oregon State, will be making his debut, along with former Beavers quarterback Aidan Chiles. ESPN gives FAU a 34% chance of pulling off the upset.
OCT. 19 vs. UTSA (RPI: 56)
The Owls, at just 26.8%, have the lowest chance of defeating UTSA than they against any other team on their schedule. The Roadrunners have the highest RPI ranking of any squad in the AAC and are projected to win 8.7 games in 2024. UTSA defeated FAU 36-10 last fall.
